Editor:
The credibility of the proposed business case for Three Sisters Mountain Village development plan is extremely suspect. The plan was prepared some time ago. The Altus Group report, dated June 2020 contains the caveat:-
“This analysis was substantially prepared prior to the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic and represents data, trends and information available at that time. While we cannot guarantee that impacts on the demographics and the economy that might come about because of the pandemic won’t impact this report’s findings, the analysis and forecast horizon in the report is sufficiently long that these effects are likely to be minimal.”
Forecast accuracies over 25 years are extremely poor so the second sentence is meaningless. However, there is also nothing to suggest in the report that significant debt being undertaken by governments at all levels and the increased focus on climate change initiatives have been considered.
Similarly, one of the Nichols reports makes an extremely optimistic assumption that the COVID effects will be over by the end of 2021. These reports too make no reference to economic change being brought about by climate change policies.
The Town declared a state of Climate Change Emergency in 2019, but current changes do not have huge impacts which the emergency requires. There will be considerable changes in lifestyle as the necessary policies are implemented.
European countries have made much enhanced target commitments to address this. For example no new internal combustion engines by 2030, and enough wind power to supply all homes by 2030, greenhouse gas emissions to reduce by 68 per cent compared to 1990 levels.
To reach such targets, which are not necessarily aggressive enough, involves massive change and all communities have to play their part. The Three Sisters Mountain Village plan, which the Town is considering, is nowhere in line with any significant change and is simply business as usual.
Furthermore, we are in a state of emergency in dealing with the COVID pandemic. At present, all actions being legislated are short term with the anticipation of a return to normal without any likelihood that a recognizable normal will emerge from the present national and international economic turmoil.
The plan proposed seems to have no awareness of this. It plans on new businesses in a climate where one in five Canadian businesses is expected to close in the near future. Many businesses are only being kept alive through subsidies which the governments are providing at the cost of massive debt, which will need paying for.
The use of social distancing and mask wearing, the reduction in travel and the limitation of gathering sizes has shown that “the public health measures put in place in these last 11 months have truly stopped seasonal influenza in its tracks.” This from Dr. Deena Hinshaw. It would seem unlikely in the future that these practices can be eliminated.
As travel is seen as a risk issue the possible future of tourism could be very curtailed. It is travel that has introduced new more contagious COVID variants into Canada.
The situation with vaccines is confused at best. Preliminary vaccines have been produced of varying efficacy both for different age groups, and for different COVID variants. Questions remain about how long a vaccinated person will remain resistant to one form or another of COVID. Some countries are making vaccine commitments for delivery in 2022.
A future based on tourism and high mobility populations will present risks to the health of all residents.
The Three Sisters Mountain Village proposal is in denial of all these issues facing us.
The Town has to consider itself as a partner in any new project particularly through its infrastructure commitments. There is no mention of a risk assessment of failure of this proposal nor of how much money the Town will require in order to protect its current citizens from debts incurred by the project being unable to run to completion.
The Three Sisters property has had a history of business failures and it is not certain that this time will be any different. This is definitely a poor time to grant approval to such an extensive project accompanied by so many unconsidered risks.
Anthony Harckham,
Canmore
